Why Would a Newly Divorced Woman Brag About Getting Married Again

In my 2nd post on Last One Downwardly the Aisle Wins, I shared a chart on the effects of historic period at union on divorce rates from the NCHS:

The bones human relationship between a woman's age at the fourth dimension of marriage and her likelihood of divorcing is adequately well known.  However, what is seldom discussed is why this is the case.  The standard supposition is that women who wait longer are more mature, better able to pick a married man they can remain faithful to, and more set for wedlock.  Also, women who attend college more often than not marry a flake later on, and college attendance correlates strongly with IQ, which has a very strong correlation with divorce.  Undoubtedly there is some truth to these reasons, simply there is something else very important going on. A woman's likelihood of divorcing in whatever given year is highly correlated to her age.  Young women in the peak of their sexual  marketplace power are far more likely to divorce than older women are.  I shared the chart beneath for the Uk in a previous post:

Note how aside from the very youngest historic period brackets, a woman in the U.k.'s likelihood of divorcing correlates strongly with her perceived ability to remarry.  The Great britain nether 20 and twenty-24 age brackets are perplexing, considering they defy conventional wisdom on very young wedlock, the United states data on early spousal relationship divorce rates, as well as expectations based on the sexual marketplace.  With this in mind, I suspect that women who marry that young in the UK are bucking the tendency plenty that they are a much more than dedicated group regarding marriage.  The final chart was just a snapshot in time, but the bones event has been remarkably stable in the UK for as far back every bit information is available:

Leaving aside the volatile under 20 age bracket, the lines almost never cross.  The only change is that the xx-24 twelvemonth one-time bracket has moved between being the most likely to divorce, the 2d most likely to divorce, and the tertiary near likely to divorce.  But the trend for women starting in their tardily 20s has e'er been the same;  the older they are, the less likely they are to divorce.  This has remained the case fifty-fifty equally the age of first union has connected to grow.  This isn't only nigh divorces occurring in the very beginning of union.  There is a much stronger pattern involved here.

Until just recently I've had to speculate on what this same pattern would look like for the US.  I accept yet to find anyone who splits the U.s.a. data out this way, only just this calendar week I found the missing component I needed to roll my ain chart:

The chart in a higher place combines data from the 2009 spreadsheet from the U.s. Census (all races) on the percentage of women by age subclass who were married, with the data on divorces by age in 2009 from Table 2 in this recent census newspaper.*  Notice that while Us divorce rates are significantly higher than UK divorce rates across the board, the same bones design nosotros saw in the UK data exists in the US data minus the unexpected beliefs for younger age brackets.

Taken together, this data soundly disproves the apex fallacy regarding divorce.  The common belief that divorce rates are driven past men discarding older wives for a younger model simply doesn't fit with the data.  This is reinforced when you consider that the AARP institute that 66% of the divorces in middle historic period were initiated by women (effigy two on page 15).  This fits with the historical trends of women of all ages initiating divorce, as shown in page 3 of this paper. Even in centre age women are nonetheless the ones driving divorce rates.  The myth of the unloyal husband dumping his hapless married woman once he feels it is to his reward is generally just that (a myth).  This won't end women from pointing over and over again to the rare case they know of in the media or in person where this has occurred, but in the scheme of things this is clearly an outlier.  Across historic period ranges divorce is beingness driven by women, and the likelihood of a couple divorcing in any given twelvemonth tracks very strongly with whether the wife feels it would be to her advantage non to keep her promise.

*The specific rates for each group in the The states chart may non be exact.  The figures in Table ii from the new report on the total number of women in each age bracket vary slightly from the figures in the 2009 census report.  This appears to exist due to the nature of the sampling they did.  Also, table two shows slightly different numbers of women and men divorcing and marrying in the aforementioned twelvemonth.  This would be expected when looking at different age brackets, only not the overall figures.  At any charge per unit, the differences aren't big so the data still appears to be generally valid.  Lastly, using the figures in Table 2 I calculated the overall charge per unit of divorce per one,000 married women in the US in 2009 at 19.  This other source calculates it at sixteen.4 for the same yr, however that report omits data from California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota.

Update:  The National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR) at Bowling Light-green State Academy used ACS information to summate divorce rates by age in the Us for 2010.  Their calculations are nearly identical to my own above.  Also notation that the ACS is a more complete data source than the one the National Marriage projection uses, which explains the differences in overall divorce rate calculations referenced higher up.  Come across this mail for more than data.

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Source: https://dalrock.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/why-a-womans-age-at-time-of-marriage-matters-and-what-this-tells-us-about-the-apex-fallacy/

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